The
fate of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman hangs in the balance.
The common perception is that everything depends on which way President
Donald Trump moves – go by his own preference to bury the scandal over
Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance or give in to the rising demand that
Saudi-American relations can no longer be business as usual. Trump’s
mood swing suggests he is dithering.

Yet,
it is Turkey – more precisely, President Recep Erdogan – who is the
real arbiter. The Turks have let it be known that they are in possession
of materials that expose Khashoggi’s murder. But the official position
is that the onus is on the Saudis to prove that Khashoggi left their
consulate in Istanbul alive.

The
Saudis responded with alacrity by mooting the proposal to form “a joint
action team” with “brotherly” Turkey. Turkey agreed and a Saudi team
arrived in Turkey on Friday. But Riyadh and Ankara are apparently at
odds. Meanwhile, reports appeared that Turkish intelligence has
recordings of Khashoggi’s purported killing. Ankara has not disclaimed
these reports.

Foreign
Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Saturday, “There is consensus on
forming a joint working group with Saudi Arabia… It is natural for
everyone to show awareness of the case and want it to be clarified.”
However, he stressed that Turkey’s own investigation will proceed
independently and it is “getting deeper”. He regretted that Saudi
cooperation was not optimal. Equally, the spokesman of the ruling
Justice and Development Party Omer Celik warned ominously against any
“cover-up”:

“The
president is following the matter closely. Turkey’s independent
investigation is ongoing. It is a very critical matter. There are
speculative claims that a respectful journalist was killed. Such an
action is an attack on all the values of the democratic world. It
involves the Republic of Turkey directly. This individual went missing
on our soil. He entered the premises and did not re-emerge. It will
eventually become clear how he went missing, what happened and who
organized it. The disappearance of Khashoggi cannot be covered up. “

Cavusoglu,
who is on a visit to London, also hinted he might raise the issue with
his British counterpart.  Significantly, Turkish analysts and circles
close to the ruling party have taken an openly hostile stance vis-à-vis
Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MBS).

Their
narrative harks back to the persistent Turkish allegation that MBS and
the UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed have been the cats paw of the US
and British and Israeli intelligence in the various hot spots in the
Middle East – Syria, Iraq, Yemen, etc. – and even had a hand in the
failed coup attempt against Erdogan two years ago.

According
to this narrative, Istanbul was probably chosen as the venue of the
ghastly incident, since Erdogan has been giving refuge to fugitives who
oppose the two Gulf regimes – alluding to Khashoggi’s friendship with
Erdogan and their shared affinity with the Muslim Brotherhood. Ibrahim
Karagul, leading editor and a staunch supporter of Erdogan, wrote,

“Turkey
must call Salman and Zayed to account… It must ask them to pay for
the crimes they committed against our country… They think they can do
anything with money and buy everyone… Our file is ready. We are going to
hold them responsible not only for the Jamal Khashoggi incident, but
for many things, including the July 15, 2016 coup attempt, financing
terrorism against our country, arming the PKK and Daesh, the war they
are carrying on against our country in northern Syria, and their
cooperation in multinational attacks, including the assassination
attempt on our president.”

The
fact that the Saudi investigation team is headed by Prince Khalid Al
Faisal, the third son of King Faisal (and a senior member of the al
Turki clan), underscores that the House of Saud senses an existential
moment. To be sure, Erdogan is playing his cards shrewdly. He is keeping
an uncharacteristically low profile himself and speaking only the bare
minimum that is necessary, but has let media leaks continue in a steady
stream that has inflamed the western opinion against the Saudi regime.

Trump
is having a hard time coping with Erdogan’s “maximum pressure”. On
Saturday, he resorted to the “Art of the Deal”. On the sidelines of the
release of the American pastor by a Turkish judge on October 12, Trump
laid it on a bit thick: “This is a tremendous step towards having the
kind of relationship (with Turkey) which can be a great relationship. We
feel much differently about Turkey today than we did yesterday. And I
think we have a chance of really becoming much closer to Turkey and
maybe having a very, very good relationship.” Making nice with Erdogan
becomes important. Trump has reason to worry that his son-in-law Jared
Kushner’s close ties to the crown princes of Saudi Arabia and the UAE
may come under scrutiny at some point during the investigation into the
Khashoggi affair.

Indeed,
many possibilities open in front of Erdogan. Quite obviously, it
presents him with just the reason to re-engage with the Trump
administration from a perspective of being on the right side of history.
But the big question is, what is Erdogan’s agenda? To be sure, his
“neo-Ottomanism” is on a roll, now that Saudi Arabia has painted itself
into a corner.

Clearly,
the US-backed alliance between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel and Egypt
to contain Iran does not make a new regional order. Erdogan will now
assert Turkey’s leadership role in the Muslim Middle East. Importantly,
he is known to champion the Muslim Brotherhood as the charioteer of a
New Middle East.

Photo: NewsRescue.com

Former career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. Devoted much of
his 3-decade long career to the Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran desks in
the Ministry of External Affairs and in assignments on the territory of
the former Soviet Union.  After leaving the diplomatic service, took to
writing and contribute to The Asia Times, The Hindu and Deccan Herald.
Lives in New Delhi.

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