Τρία αποκαλυπτικά άρθρα του ALMONITOR για τη κατάσταση στο Ιράκ, το ΙΚΙΛ και τον ιρακινό στρατό. Η εκδίκηση του Σαντάμ Χουσεΐν;
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| A civilian stands near damaged vehicles belonging to Iraqi security forces during clashes between Iraqi security forces and al-Qaeda spin-off Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, June 10, 2014. (photo by REUTERS) |
The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS)
continues to implement its security and military plan. As soon as the
“Breaking the Walls” operation finished during the month of Ramadan last
year [July-August 2013], ISIS began to carry out a new plan under the
name “Soldiers’ Harvest.” The seizure of the Iraqi city of Mosul falls
under the general framework of the latter, putting the region on the
verge of the abyss. This situation should ring alarm bells in the Middle
East, and particularly in Arab countries.
Facts on the ground show that ISIS is operating according to
premeditated plans, taking advantage of the military expertise it gained
from former Iraqi army officers who joined the group.
It is important
to mention that a number of current ISIS emirs were major generals
during the era of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. This experience
has enabled ISIS to benefit from weak points in the Iraqi army and gaps
in the security apparatus since the emirs are well-acquainted with
them. They also allowed ISIS to set up military and security plans that
are in line with the situation on the ground and its requirements.
The “Breaking the Walls” operation was announced by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi himself
at the beginning of July 2012. It was the first time his voice was
heard since he became leader of the organization’s emirate in May 2010.
Data show that after he assumed the position, Baghdadi was able to
restructure the organization, which was struggling due to the relapses
after 2007. These were caused by the organization’s fight against the US
forces, the Iraqi army and the Sahwa and tribal forces. Baghdadi
surrounded himself with a large number of consultants and leaders, the
majority of whom were [former] officers in the Iraqi army, and set up
the plans with them. They took into consideration the expected changes
that would emanate from the Arab Spring.
The “Breaking the Walls” plan aimed at liberating detainees in Iraqi
prisons. Even though the operation was focused on jihadist detainees,
the environment in Iraqi prisons in general constituted an attractive
factor for the leaders of ISIS, as they found large numbers of prisoners
to recruit. During the latest operation, “Defeating the
Tyrants,” carried out as part of “Breaking the Walls,” ISIS broke into
the famous Abu Ghraib prison, as well as al-Hout prison in al-Taji.
Although there were conflicting reports about the number of prisoners
who escaped, estimated at hundreds or thousands, it was certain that
hundreds were former leaders in extremist Islamist factions. After they
escaped, they became cadres and militants for ISIS.
During this phase, ISIS established itself as one of the most
powerful factions in the north and east of Syria and was able to open
supply routes extending from its strongholds in the east of Syria to the
Iraqi regions where its members were spread. This helped strengthen its
forces and take advantage of the fighting experience it gained in Syria
to implement in Iraq. The battles in Syria were sometimes fought in the
form of [urban] street fights and other times in the form of wars
directly between factions. This was not the case in Iraq; therefore ISIS
opted for bombings and storming [areas].
This is why the announcement of the “Soldiers’ Harvest” operation at
the end of Ramadan 2013 indicated that ISIS had opened a new phase in
terms of military planning, taking advantage of its military expertise
in Syria and Iraq. All indicators pointed in the direction that Syria
would be the favorite battleground to implement this plan, to the extent
that the spokesman for ISIS, Abu Mohammad al-Adnani, announced that the
bombing of al-Saboura in the countryside of Hama in July 2013 was the
first step in the implementation of the plan.
However, developments in
Syria, especially on the level of fighting between ISIS and jihadist factions,
led to a change of theater, shifting the focus again to Iraq.
Last
week, we witnessed significant developments, namely the breaking into
Samarra, and [ISIS] control over Mosul and the town of Rabia on the
Iraqi-Syrian borders.
Some keep saying that the biggest plan of ISIS is to control the
largest geographical area possible before the coming Ramadan [at the end
of this month] — the date set to announce the establishment of the
Islamic caliphate.
ISIS seen as liberators by some Sunnis in Mosul
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| The jacket belonging to an Iraqi army uniform lies on the ground in front of the remains of a burnt-out Iraqi army vehicle, close to the Kukjali Iraqi army checkpoint, some 10 kilometers (6 miles) east of Mosul, June 11, 2014. (photo by AFP/Getty Images/Safin Hamed) |
Dindar Zebari, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) assistant head
of the Department of Foreign Relations, announced in a press conference
that approximately 500,000 refugees
arrived in Iraqi Kurdistan, with about 180,000 refugees in Dahuk and
100,000 in Erbil. The KRG will build three camps near the entry
checkpoints of Erbil and Dahuk.
On June 11, the Kurdish security forces took over the Rabia border
crossing, replacing Iraqi soldiers who fled, and have mobilized along
Kirkuk and disputed areas.
Tiswa Mahmud, an Iraqi citizen from the countryside of Mosul, told Al-Monitor how she fled.
“I slept with my son in the hospital, which was bombed. The Iraqi
army surrounded the hospital. We did not have food or water for days. I
do not know who shot us. After this, we fled to Dahuk,” she said.
Omar Abdulsami, a member of the Iraqi army and a Kurd, told
Al-Monitor they fought ISIS close to a hospital. “But when a car bomb
exploded, we fled, and left our positions,” he said.
According to Abdulsami, the Iraqi army could have defended Mosul, if they stood their ground.
“If just 300 soldiers defended Mosul, we could defend all of Mosul. But in the Iraqi army, only the Kurds
fought. Even off-duty Kurdish soldiers helped us. The police even
helped Daash [ISIS] against the Iraqi army and gave their cars. I blame
this on [Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri] al-Maliki and his friends.”
Yunis Ibrahim, a member of the Kurdish Zerevani forces, said that at
one point there was an accidental skirmish between ISIS, Kurdish
forces and the Iraqi army, which wanted to open the road to flee Mosul.
Some civilians who fled Mosul suggest that the Iraqi army — with
soldiers mostly from provinces in southern Iraq — is weak because they
are not well-liked in Mosul.
Al-Monitor witnessed Iraqi soldiers on June 1 randomly firing shots
in the air in the streets of Mosul, and stopping and harassing the local
population.
The inhabitants of Mosul see the Iraqi army as a Shiite occupation
army from Baghdad, and some civilians welcomed ISIS when they entered
Mosul and removed all Iraqi army checkpoints.
Athil al-Nujaifi, governor of Ninevah province, has reportedly
lobbied for local police to replace the Iraqi army in Mosul, but Baghdad
maintained its military presence, which is deeply unpopular with many
residents.
Sunni Arabs and Kurds from Mosul, especially, had no good words for
the Iraqi army’s deputy chief, Abboud Qanbar, and the head of the
Ninevah Operations Command, Mahdi al-Ghrawi, suggesting they
had arrested innocent civilians and were involved in corruption.
“The Iraqi army oppressed the people, they stole their money,” said Ali Ahmed, a driver, who was shot while fleeing Mosul.
According to Ahmed, the local population in Mosul welcomed ISIS. “The
people in Mosul do not like Daash, or Maliki, but they now feel better
under Daash, and water and electricity returned.”
Ahmed al-Ghadra, 74, a former resident of Mosul, told Al-Monitor the
army mistreated him. “The Arab Iraqi people want Maliki to go to
prison. He is a traitor. Fourteen Daash members come, and the whole
Iraqi army flees. The people of Mosul do not want the Iraqi army in Mosul. I’m an old man, and they stopped me for one hour at a checkpoint, using bad language.”
More witnesses confirm that ISIS treated the civilian population
well, and told them that they would only punish those who work with
Maliki. Basma Mohammed told Al-Monitor that the situation was horrible
in Mosul. “We had no water, no food in Mosul, but now everything is
back. They [ISIS] told the people to go back to Mosul.”
Dr. Omar al-Faris, from Mosul, who works in the Dahuk emergency
hospital, told Al-Monitor that the population welcomed ISIS because they
removed all the checkpoints. “Before, it took two hours to get
somewhere. Now the civilians are free to move. All of them are happy
that the Iraqi army left.”
Mohammed Saad Ali from Mosul, whose son was hurt in the crossfire,
told Al-Monitor he is not hopeful about the future. “I do not think the
Iraqi army can get Mosul back again. For 10 years there was no
stability. It is in the hands of God.”
ISIS erases Iraq-Syria border
without resistance, leaving behind their weapons, equipment and
vehicles, while displaced persons started knocking on doors in search of
a safe place.
ISIS wasn’t satisfied by just controlling Mosul; it also
controlled all of Ninevah province and eliminated the border between
Iraq and Syria at the al-Yaarabiya crossing.
But Mosul’s stature and population (Iraq’s second-largest city after
Baghdad) make it difficult for ISIS to manage for long. So, ISIS tried
to reassure the population and declared its desire to open a dialogue
with clerics, city notables and tribal leaders.
Baghdad seemed in a state of shock after receiving news that its army
in Mosul had collapsed and that top commanders fled. That shock wasn’t
alleviated by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki declaring a general
mobilization and him calling on parliament to declare a state of
emergency, which is difficult to implement because it would need the
support of two-thirds of parliament. Parliament Speaker Osama al-Nujaifi
called parliament for a special session Thursday [June 12].
Yesterday afternoon [June 10], Al-Hayat obtain information from
inside Mosul confirming that a number of clerics, notables and tribal
leaders in the city have been invited to meet with ISIS leaders. ISIS
also contacted former army members asking them for their “allegiance” to
the Islamic state, as the organization had done elsewhere in Syria and
Iraq. But tribal figures discounted that and suggested that the
organization may try to involve the people in administering the city to
prove that what is happening is a “popular revolution” and to give ISIS a
chance to use its fighters in new operations.
The people of Mosul
who fled when ISIS’ first armed convoys entered the neighborhoods of
“July 17,” al-Najjar, al-Mashrafiyya, al-Yarmouk and Tall Rumman,
witnessed the army leaving those neighborhoods before completely leaving
the city. The fleeing soldiers said they received vague withdrawal
orders from the leadership and that the military unit commanders
suddenly disappeared.
Within hours, ISIS fighters, whom the population asserts are a
mixture of Iraqi and foreign nationalities, had taken control of the
local government headquarters, Mosul airport, the banks, the official
institutions and the prisons, from which nearly 1,300 detainees were
released.
Yesterday [June 10], Maliki asked parliament to declare a state of
emergency and called for regional and international organizations to
support Iraq. Regarding the army’s collapse in Mosul, Maliki’s spokesman
Ali al-Moussawi read a statement: “The General Command of the Armed
Forces has issued instructions to hold accountable, according to the
Military Penal Code, those found not having done their duties.”
Although Nujaifi, who hails from Mosul, expressed his willingness to
sit down with Maliki, and called for the intervention of the Kurdish
Peshmerga forces to liberate the city, he didn’t hide his fears that
ISIS may move toward Baghdad. Yesterday [June 10], ISIS gunmen took over
Baiji and al-Sainiyya in Saladin province, expanded westward toward the
Rabia crossing and took control of both sides of the Iraq-Syria border.
In the east, they took the town of al-Sharqat, which is adjacent to the
Kurdistan Region and saw violent clashes yesterday evening.
The most likely scenario, according to security leaders in Baghdad, is that ISIS will try to exploit the collapse of the army to
complete its grip on the Iraq-Syria border to the west and then
progress toward Saladin province to reach the outskirts of Baghdad by
using its active cells near the capital. Those cells have lines of
communication and logistical support with Anbar to the east and the
provinces of Diyala and Kirkuk to the west.
The Mosul event triggered major global reactions. US State Department
spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the United States considers ISIS fighters a
threat to the entire Middle East and that Washington supports “a strong
and coordinated response” to the attack on Mosul and is ready to provide
“all assistance to Iraq.”
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed “grave” concern. His
spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, called on Iraqis to unite to confront this
danger.
Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2014/06/iraq-isis-control-mosul.html#ixzz34Ph8mz26
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