Two headlines today support the claim that “western” media reporting often defies the observable reality.

• Washington Post: For the first time since 2013, ISIS has no border with NATO
• Independent: Isis ‘cut off from rest of world’ as rebels expel Islamists from Turkish border
• From the last one:

Isis has lost control of its last territories on the border
with Turkey, monitoring groups say, in a major blow to the group’s
ability to receive foreign fighters from the rest of the world.

Neither is ISIS cut of from the world, nor from NATO. Fighters as
well as goods can still cross to and from Turkey like they did
throughout the last years.

Just take a look at the map:

The Turkish-Syrian border between Azaz, Al-Ra’i and Jarablus, with
ISIS (grey) on the southern side, was always open for traffic between
the two areas. Now the Turkish army and Turkish proxy forces of
“moderate rebels” moved into the green strip of land on the Syrian side.
This did not seal or close the border, as other countries had demanded.
It simply moved the border south. Crossing between the ISIS held area
and the Turkish controlled area will now be easier because media will
have no access to the area. Deals will be made out of sight and money
will flow as well as traffic.

There was no fighting at all about the strip between ISIS and the
Turkish forces. The Turks told ISIS to move south and it did so before
the Turks and its mercenaries moved in. There was not even one Turkish
casualty from fighting ISIS over the area. The change of the territorial
borderline was obviously done in mutual agreement.

It is ridiculous that some media try to sell that as a closing of the border or as a cut off. It is the opposite.

Turkey’s main intention with this move was to prevent a connection of
the (yellow) Kurdish areas in the east and the west. Such a Kurdish
controlled connecting strip along the border would indeed have sealed
it. ISIS traffic would not have been allowed to pass Kurdish
checkpoints.

Turkey will probably try to annex the area it has taken. There are
plans to build new cities on the Syrian side to house refugees currently
in Turkish camps. Turkey could thereby offload a major burden its war
on Syria has brought onto it.

Russia and Iran had agreed
to the Turkish move into the area after Turkey promised to end its
support for attacks on Aleppo city. It has yet to be seen if Turkey will
stick to this promise. Some of the Turkish proxy fighters involved in
the attack on Aleppo were pulled back and moved to the now occupied
border strip. But material support for the attack in form of ammunition
and other supplies seems to continue.

Two decent analyst argue that the agreement, while not entirely preferred, is still in Russia’s and Syria’s advantage.

Elijah Magnier says (Arabic) (English, unedited) that Russian policy in Syria is like a Matryoshka doll
with one item placed inside the other. The most elaborate of these
dolls has 50 levels of nesting with a total of 51 dolls. Says Magnier:

Putin seems have pulled out his first Matryushka doll by
bombing the enemies of Damascus last September. He pulled out the second
smaller doll when accepting a cease-fire. Then he pulled out a third
doll by helping to besiege Aleppo the first time. The fourth was
skilfully brought out when he supported Erdogan and approved –Putin
before Obama – a safe passage for the Turkish troops into Syria.

Should Turkey move away from the agreement, or the U.S. try something
nasty, another outer doll of the 47 left will be removed and a new
Russian plan will become visible.

Raphaël Lebrujah of the French Mediapart giving his view (French) (English, machine translated) the Turkish-Russian deal:

Putin has just played a masterstroke. Indeed, in addition to
having obtained many benefits from Erdogan, he just throw Turkey, an
old adversary in the Syrian hell. Erdogan was carried away by his
obsession, the fight against Kurdish.
…
Russia achieved the
feat with one stone three hits against three opponents of the regime:
the Kurds, the Syrian Islamists and Turkey. By destabilizing relations
within these three actors and one against throwing in others it is a
masterstroke. Better, the US appear to be divided between pro-Turkish
and pro-Kurdish. Indeed, the CIA and US policies appear closer to the
Turkish interests and the pentagon, that of the Kurds.

Economically Russia wins by again opening trade with Turkey. The
“moderate” Islamist in the new Turkish zone are now separated from the
al-Qaeda groups around Aleppo. Turks and Kurds in Syria will stay busy
with fighting each other. Indeed Russia can use the Kurds against Turkey
should Erdogan try to play foul. A few anti-tank or anti-air weapons
smuggled into Turkey’s east from Armenia will hurt the Turkish army in
its fight against the local PKK. The Turkish conscript army, already
weakened through purges after the recent coup, can not absorb high
casualties without alarming the Turkish public.

ISIS will still be connected to Turkey. But its fighting power is
severely diminished and it is already falling back into guerrilla mode.
It now mostly avoids open battles. It will be ground down over time.

Surprises may still come from ISIS as it has some very well trained personnel. Its new military commander
is Gulmurod Khalimov, a special forces officer from Tajikistan, long
trained in counterterrorism by U.S. advisors and special forces. He
replaces the dead Abu Omar al-Shishani, a Chechen special force officer
from Georgia, long trained in counterterrorism by U.S. advisors and
special forces. Look there! The Russians just dropped a barrel bomb!
Nothing to see here, Nothing at all …

Posted by b on September 5, 2016 at 12:45 PM
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/09/syria-who-wins-in-the-turkish-russian-deal.html#more