Syrian Roulette

Thanks to all for the good discussion of Mark Sleboda’s post here.
His central thesis: the recent Turkish invasion of Syria was against
Russian interests, Russia basically left Syria hanging and lost out in
the NATO war on the country.
But my sources told me of behind-the-scenes agreements that went
against the U.S. orders and plans. All relevant news published recently
also points to a different story. Turkey has aligned with Russia and
Iran and some, may be temporary, agreement was found with regards to the
conflict in Syria. The U.S. was lost in the chaos that followed when
two of the U.S. proxy forces, Syrian Kurds and Turkish led “moderate
rebel” Jihadists, fought each other around Jarablus.
My own doubts about what was really happening were expressed three weeks when I asked: Who Now Leads The War On Syria – The CIA Or Turkey?. Its conclusion:

It could be that Turkish-U.S. cooperation on Syria, despite
the coup-attempt in Turkey, is still excellent. That would imply that
major conflicts playing out in the spy world and in the media are
orchestrated fakes to confuse Syria and its allies.
But these conflicts may also point to real fighting behind the
scenes. Fighting about who will be stuck with the tar-babies al-Qaeda in
Syria and other “rebels” are likely to become.

Since then the fog has lifted a bit. There is a real conflict between
the U.S. and Turkey. Turkey indeed moved on a plan that Russia, Iran
and Syria had agreed with. The U.S was caught off guard. The real tar-baby for the U.S. turned out to be the Syrian Kurds, who in their utter hubris and pushed by the U.S., overextended their possibilities
and alienating everyone around them. The U.S. had counted on their
fighting prowess to clean Raqqa and to rule over east and central Syria
but that dream is now over. The U.S. was eventually forced to side with
its NATO ally Turkey to prevent it from moving even further towards
Russia. The Kurds lost some 400 men in fighting for Manbij only to be
told to move out again – without any gain. They will not give one man to
conquer Raqqa.
Three recent reports now add to the discussion. The first by Genevieve Casagrande a “Syria analyst” of the neocon Institute for the Study of War:

Turkey’s intervention in Jarablus is a turning point in
American-Turkish relations and the war against ISIS. Erdogan’s
willingness to commit military force to the anti-ISIS fight fulfils
longstanding American demands for Turkey to increase its contribution to
the anti-ISIS mission. The recapture of Jarablus and ongoing operations
to clear remaining ISIS-held portions of the border west of Jarablus
have set the desired conditions for an offensive to retake Raqqa city by
eliminating ISIS’s final supply line from Turkey.

That view somewhat agrees with Mark in that this move is seen as to
the advantage of the U.S.  But it is devoid of reality. No one will
touch Raqqa now as all U.S. plans towards that were based on Kurdish
cooperation. The U.S. is currently outside of the game frame and without
control over any of the actors. It has no canon fodder left it could
push towards any attack.  Also – moving Turkish soldiers and influence
down south and deeper into ISIS land does not cut ISIS’s supply lines to
Turkey. It just shortens the run to the virtual border crossing ISIS
couriers will have to take. There was and is no need for Turkey to
invade Syria at all if the aim were to shut down its border to prevent
traffic to and from ISIS crossing it.
The “analyst”
is in her early to mid twenties, has a BA in English, partied in Dubai
and Jordan to learn a bit of Arabic and sorted Youtube videos from Syria
for various U.S. foundation. A “Syria analyst” with little relevant
knowledge and no experience but trained enough to avoid any critical
thought while writing down whatever neocon nonsense she is told. One
must disregard any piece that positively quotes her. Was she hired to look good on TV or to amuse the various buffoons of the Kagan clan?
Two news reports by real analysts and reporters who walk the grounds
about which they write give some clearer idea of what is really
happening. Mohammad Ballout writes for Lebanon’s Assafir newspaper. His
latest as translated by Yalla La Barra:

The Syrians and the Turks are on the verge of a security understanding that will lead to a political one.
The indications of this unprecedented understanding are not yet clear.
But its first headline, without any surprises, is a trade off: the
Turks backing off in Aleppo and closing the crossings used by some of
the armed groups (the most important ones) in the north in exchange for
the Turkish forces to be given the freedom to destroy the Kurdish
project in Syria. In other words, the city of Aleppo goes to Syria and the corpse of the Kurdish project in Syria goes to the Turks.
…
It
can be said that the Turks have taken a first step to separate the
moderate opposition from the extremist groups. Turkey’s recent diversion
of thousands of fighters from the fronts of Aleppo and Idlib represents
a Turkish initiative to separate the factions it directly mentors from
the extremist groups who coordinate their operations.

There are doubts though that the Turks can complete escape from the U.S./NATO frame:

It’s likely that this deal will face questions about the
American role, and Turkey’s ability to advance it’s understanding and
coordination with the Russians, Iranians and Syrians – namely, the
resistance axis – without US approval is unlikely. The ability of
Erdogan to shift from Turkey’s traditional/historical position against
the resistance axis, and rebel against Washington is questionable.
…
Until now, real indicators of a change in the Turkish position on the ground still need a lot of time, especially in Aleppo. However,
there are indications that the Americans are feeling uncomfortable
about the Turkish-Iranian-Russian rapprochement and have instructed
their agencies to stop providing the Turks with military/security
information in Syria.

Turkey does not depend on U.S. intelligence in Syria. It surely has
better sources and connections than the CIA or anyone else but the
Syrians themselves. I see little, if any, ability left with Washington
to tell Erdogan what to do or not to do. There are also significant
measures Russia, Iran and Syria can take to penalize Turkey (or the
Saudis) should Erdogan try to deviate from the deal. A few new weapons
in the hands of the PKK (or Houthis) could cost Turkey (Saudi Arabia)
more than they are able to gain in Syria.
Elijah J. Magnier reports for the Kuwait AlRai on the deal with some special insight on the Russian role:

During their meeting in St. Petersburg and following
consecutive reunions later, plus an exchange of visits by high-ranking
military officials, Russia and Turkey agreed on the role the Turkish
forces could be offered in Syria, within specific parameters that will
serve both sides interest, as long as there are limits and guarantees
offered by both parties.
..
Russia has accepted a Turkish
incursion into Syrian territory due to the Kurds’ declared hostility to
the government in Damascus when YPG forces attacked and expelled
the Syrian army from al-Hasakah city to the suburbs, with US backing, –
a clear intention to initiate the partition of Syria. Russia stands against a Kurdish state ruled by the US in the new Kremlin Mediterranean base, Syria.
..
Turkey expressed its willingness to collaborate and instruct many rebel
groups under its direct influence, to reject unification, avoid the
merger proposed by Nusra, and keep its distance from the Jihadists,
mainly in the northern city of Aleppo. […] Turkey agreed to avoid any
contact or clash with the Syrian army, mainly around Aleppo, in support
of the Syrian rebels and jihadists.
…
Russia made it clear to
Turkey that it will not tolerate any infringement of the agreement or
any clash with the Syrian Army drawing clear redlines, and threatening
that its Air Force will hit the Turkish forces and its proxies in case
of any similar violation.

All these talks were not just between Turkey and Syria (in Algeria)
or between Moscow and Ankara. There was a wide framework discussed
between all relevant forces – Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Turkey and
others and only the U.S. (it seems) was left out. I do not see this as a
loss for Russia – not at all. The Syrian government was barely alive
when Russia intervened just 10 month ago. It has now regained a lot of
its land and capabilities. The U.S. and Israeli plans for a divided
Syria have been warded. The strategic landscape has been changed. That’s
a lot of progress in a quite short time.
Surely Syria would like to be in a better situation, but its
resources are limited and neither Russia nor Iran are willing to go
all-in (and risk attacks on their homelands) to recover the last corners
of the country. The deal with Turkey will prevent control of the U.S.
over significant parts of Syria and the federalization of the country the neocons promote.
The Obama administration is unlikely to implement any new big plan
with which it could regain the initiative. It will kick the can down the
road and leave the problem to the next president. Meanwhile ISIS will
stay alive but will, devoid of resources, continue to deteriorate. That
apple will either fall down on its own or be an easy pick for a later
time:

Decisional sources told me “Damascus and its allies are not
willing to lose one single man to regain control of Raqqah. If the US
wants with all its proxies, the Kurds or even Turkey to knock at the
gate of Raqqah, they are most welcome to do so. Aleppo, mid Syria and
its north are far more important than sending forces to be drained
against ISIS that is just waiting to show a last show of strength before
being whipped.

Posted by b on August 31, 2016 at 11:25 AM
 http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/08/a-deal-over-syria-that-left-the-us-out.html