The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) achieved its greatest victory in the four
year-long war on Tuesday when it recaptured the strategic Kuweires
military airbase in North Syria. Hundreds of ISIS terrorists were killed
in intense fighting while hundreds more were sent fleeing eastward
towards Raqqa. The victory was announced just hours after Turkish Prime
Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said in an interview with CNN’s  Christiane
Amanpour that Turkey would be willing  to invade Syria as long as
Washington agreed to provide air support, create a safe zone along the
Syrian-Turkish border, and remove Syrian President Bashar al Assad.

Now that Kuweires has been liberated, Davutoğlu will have to
reconsider his offer taking into consideration the fact that  Russian
warplanes will now be within striking distance of the border while
troops and artillery will be positioned in a way that makes crossing
into Syria as difficult as possible. The window for Turkish troops to
enter Syria unopposed has closed. Any attempt to invade the country now
will result in stiff resistance and heavy casualties.
To fully understand the significance of Kuweires, we need take a look
at Amanpour’s interview with Davutoglu and see what was being planned.
Here’s an excerpt:

Christiane Amanpour:  Would Turkey, under the right conditions, agree to be a ground force?
PM Ahmet Davutoğlu:   “A ground force is something which we have to
talk [about] together.  There’s a need of an integrated strategy
including air campaign and ground troops. But Turkey alone cannot take
all this burden. If there is a coalition and a very well designed
integrated strategy, Turkey is ready to take part in all senses.”
C.A.:  Including on the ground?
Davutoğlu:  Yes, of course….We have to solve the Syrian crisis in a comprehensive manner.
C.A.:  So I understand what you’re saying is that the condition for
Turkey to be more involved would be an agreement by a coalition to also
go after Assad?
Davutoğlu:   Yes, and against all groups and regimes that are
creating this vacuum and this problem. On many days we are assisting the
coalition in (the fight) against ISIS, but it is not enough. Now we are
suggesting to our allies for many months–and now we are suggesting
again–to create a safe haven and to push ISIS far away from our borders.
C.A.: So what do you make of the US, Europe and especially Russia saying Assad must and can stay for a period of time?
Davutoğlu:  …..The question is not how long can Assad stay, the
question is when and how Assad will go. …What is the solution. The
solution is very clear. It is when millions of Syrian refugees are able
to return home, assuming there is peace in Syria, then this is the
solution. And if Assad stays in power in Damascus,  I don’t think any
refugee will go back. There is a need of a step by step strategy, but
what is the endgame? What is the light at the end of the tunnel, that is
what is important to the refugees.
C.A.:  Why is the Turkish government making it hard for the US
government to arm and train and use Kurdish fighters as their ground
troops?
Davutoğlu:   (we are not making it hard for the US government to use the) “Kurds”, but the PYD as a wing of the PKK…
There is another Kurdish group, the Peshmerga. We allowed the
Peshmerga to go through Turkey to go to Kobani in order to help Kobani
to be free. If the US wants to arm Kurdish fighters on the ground
against ISIS, we are ready. But not Kurdish terrorists like PKK. If they
want to arm and help Barzani, or Peshmerga and help them go to Syria,
we are ready to help. But everybody must understand, that today PKK is
attacking our cities, our soldiers and our civilians. We will not
tolerate any help to any PKK-related groups inside Syria or Iraq. If
that happens, Turkey will take all measures to stop it.” (“For refugees to return, Assad must go, says Turkish PM“, CNN)

Let’s recap: Even though the Russian-led coalition is conducting
major military operations in Syria, Turkey is willing to invade provided
that Washington meet its demands, demands that have never changed and
which (we have said in earlier columns) were part of a secret deal for
the use of the Incirlik airbase so the USAF could conduct sorties over
Syria.
What are Turkey’s demands:
1 A safe zone on the Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian border
2 A no-fly zone over areas where Turkish troops are conducting operations
3 A commitment to remove Assad.
For a while it looked like the Obama administration might abandon
their alliance with Turkey and join with the PYD (The Kurds) in their
effort to create a buffer zone where they could harbor, arm and train
Sunni militants to continue hostilities in Syria. In fact, Obama went so
far as to air-drop pallet-loads of weapons and ammo to the Democratic
Union Party (PYD) militia just 10 days ago. (Note:  The US has already
stopped  all weapons shipments to the PYD) Whether Obama did this to
force Turkey into playing a more active role in Syria, we don’t know.
But what we do know is that a Turkish-US alliance is more formidable
than a PYD-US alliance, which is why Washington is planning to sell out
the Kurds to join-forces with Turkey.
Another sign that US-Turkish relations have begun to thaw, is the
fact that Obama phoned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to
congratulate him on his party’s victory eight days after the election.
The delay suggests that they were working out their differences before
expressions of support.   Erdogan needed the landslide victory to
consolidate his power in Parliament and to persuade the military brass
that he has a mandate to carry out his foreign policy.  Obama’s phone
call was intended to pave the way for backroom negotiations which would
take place during next week’s G-20 meetings in Ankara.  But now that the
Russian-led coalition has retaken Kuweires, it is impossible to know
how the US and Turkey will proceed. If Putin’s warplanes and artillery
are able to seal the border, then Washington will have to scrap
its plan for seizing the 60-miles stretch of northern Syria that’s
needed to keep vital supplylines to US-backed jihadis open or to provide
sanctuary for mercenaries returning from the frontlines.  The changing
battlescape will make a safe zone impossible to defend.

The fact is, Kuweires changes everything. ISIS is on the run, the
myriad other terrorist organizations are progressively losing ground,
Assad is safe in Damascus, the borders will soon be protected, and the
US-Turkey plan to invade has effectively been derailed. Barring some
extraordinary, unforeseeable catastrophe that could reverse the course
of events; it looks like the Russian-led coalition will eventually
achieve its objectives and win the war. Washington will have no choice
but to return to the bargaining table and make the concessions necessary
to end the hostilities. 

MIKE WHITNEY lives in Washington state. He is a contributor to Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion (AK Press). Hopeless is also available in a Kindle edition. He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com.