Key
Takeaway: YPG forces supported by
FSA-affiliated rebel forces and U.S.-led coalition airstrikes seized the
ISIS-held border crossing of Tel Abyad in northern ar-Raqqa Province on June 15,
2015, in a major victory for Syrian Kurds and the international anti-ISIS
coalition. 
These gains successfully connect the Kurdish cantons of Kobani and Hasakah
into one contiguous zone of YPG control along the Turkish border and optimally
positioned joint YPG-FSA forces for an eventual advance south towards the ISIS stronghold
of ar-Raqqa City. 
Kurdish forces cooperated with a coalition of Arab tribes,
Assyrian paramilitary forces, and FSA-affiliated rebel factions to enable its
rapid advance, although sustained accusations of ‘ethnic cleansing’ by the YPG of
Arab civilians may disrupt wider coordination with the Syrian opposition.
Recent YPG gains will also likely exacerbate tensions between Syrian Kurds, the
Turkish government, and the Assad regime in a way which limits the options
available to both the YPG and the U.S. in the fight against ISIS in northern
and eastern Syria.

Syrian
Kurdish YPG forces supported by FSA-affiliated rebel forces and U.S.-led
international coalition airstrikes seized the ISIS-held border town of Tel
Abyad in northern ar-Raqqa Province on June 15, 2015. This victory marks the
culmination of a new YPG-led campaign to reverse ISIS’s gains against the three
Kurdish cantons of northern Syria, including Hasakah, Kobani, and Afrin; to
limit the flow of direct ISIS reinforcement through the Tel Abyad border
crossing to ar-Raqqa City and eastern Syria; and to establish a contiguous
Kurdish region stretching from Kobani to Hasakah Province. Tel Abyad is a
border town on the Syrian-Turkish border between two Kurdish areas, Hasakah and
Kobani that lies immediately north of ISIS-held Raqqa city. Tel Abyad and its
surrounding villages represented a pocket of ISIS-held terrain which blocked
transit between the Hasakah and Kobani cantons and simultaneously provided ISIS
with direct supply lines for reinforcement and resupply between the Turkish
border and the self-declared ISIS capital city of ar-Raqqa. Although ISIS
steadily lost ground to joint Kurdish and rebel forces in eastern Aleppo
Province in the immediate aftermath of the failure of its Kobani offensive in
March 2015, ISIS forces managed to establish relatively stable defensive lines
to protect Tel Abyad from the west. ISIS even achieved limited gains in Hasakah
Province to the east, where Kurdish and regime forces maintain an informal
alliance to cooperate in securing the province against ISIS advances.

The
new YPG operation, announced on May 6 under the name Operation Martyr Rubar Qamishlo after a
fallen YPG commander who died fighting ISIS, sought to reverse this dynamic and
roll back the remaining ISIS presence in northern Syria. The operation began in
Hasakah Province with a YPG push south from the Turkish border crossing at
Ras al-Ayn east of Tel Abyad, directed tosecure numerous villages recently
threatened by ISIS, including the crossroads town of Tel Tamir, the Assyrian
villages of the Khabour River Valley, and the entirety of the Abdul Aziz mountain range west of Hasakah
City. The YPG conducted this phase of the operation with the assistance of
local Assyrian militia formations. Once the YPG had secured the western flank
of Hasakah Province, YPG forces began the advance west towards Tel Abyad and seized the town of Mabrouka southwest of
Ras al-Ayn on May 26 after receiving a “green light” from the U.S.-led
air coalition to seize the entirely of the Kobani – Hasakah road along the
Turkish border. This decision signaled U.S. support for some form of contiguous
Kurdish autonomous region in northern Syria despite continuing Turkish
reservations regarding the expansion of YPG influence on its southern border.

In
response, ISIS launched an offensive against regime positions south of Hasakah
City on May 30 in an apparent attempt to divert Kurdish resources and disrupt
the ongoing YPG offensive. However, ISIS’s effort failed to draw significant
numbers of Kurdish fighters towards Hasakah City, and YPG forces supported by
FSA-affiliated rebels subsequently seized dozens of villages west and east of Tel Abyad in a consolidated
effort to envelope the border city. These advances culminated in the seizure of the town of Suluk 20 kilometers
southeast of Tel Abyad on June 14.  The
next day, YPG and FSA forces penetrated Tel Abyad from the southeast and quickly overwhelmed the small,
unreinforced ISIS force that remained in the town, prompting them to surrender
to Turkish forces at the border or flee south towards Ayn Issa and ar-Raqqa
City. YPG and rebel commanders have since messaged that the next phase of anti-ISIS operations
will involve a joint YPG-FSA offensive south from Tel Abyad to seize Ayn Issa,
sever interior ISIS lines of communication, and threaten ar-Raqqa City. This
operation could potentially enable anti-ISIS forces to penetrate into ISIS’s
core stronghold in Syria in a development which may produce positive
ramifications for other anti-ISIS operations across Iraq and Syria.

The
YPG leveraged a coalition of allied forces in
order to buttress its offensives in northern Syria and promote its
inclusiveness to non-Kurdish populations in the region. In Hasakah Province to
the east, YPG forces resisting ISIS’s advances in Tel Tamir and the majority-Assyrian villages along the Khabour River
Valley received assistance from a number of Assyrian paramilitary formations, including local
residents enrolled in the ‘Khabour Guards’ as well as fighters from the
greater Syriac Military Council (MFS). YPG units in Hasakah
Province also cooperated closely with Jaysh al-Sanadid, an Arab tribal militia commanded by Sheikh Hamidi Daham al-Hadi of
the historically pro-Kurdish Shammar tribe of
northeastern Syria and northwestern Iraq. Although these groups remain driven
largely by local concerns and have not played noticeable roles in the YPG
offensive on Tel Abyad, their presence enables the YPG to deploy manpower
towards offensive action without compromising security in its rear areas.

In
Kobani canton to the west of Tel Abyad, the YPG operates alongside a number of
FSA-aligned Syrian rebel factions organized under the umbrella of the Burkan
al-Firat (Euphrates Volcano) Operations Room. The Euphrates Volcano Operations
Room was founded on September 10, 2014, with the
expressed intent of expelling ISIS from eastern
Aleppo and ar-Raqqa Provinces. The majority of the groups participating in the
operations room consist of local brigades seeking to reclaim their home
regions following losses to ISIS which forced them to seek shelter in
Kurdish-held areas. The presence of these rebel fighters thus provides YPG
forces with added legitimacy in their efforts to seize and administer Tel Abyad
and the surrounding villages of northern ar-Raqqa Province, which are populated
primarily by Arab and Turkmen civilians
sympathetic to ISIS.

Ethnic Cleansing?

Despite
its inclusion of FSA-affiliated rebel factions and other local paramilitary
forces, prominent opposition actors have accused YPG forces of perpetrating a
number of abuses against Arab civilians during the advance into northern ar-Raqqa
Province. These allegations largely center upon claimed YPG involvement in the
forced displacement of Arab civilians and the burning of Arab homes in an
“ethnic cleansing” campaign designed to lay the foundation for the
establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria. On May 30, as
YPG forces began the advance towards Tel Abyad, the exiled Syrian National
Coalition (SNC) released a statement accusing the YPG of committing
“violations” against the local civilian population in Hasakah Province which
served to “encourage sectarian and ethnic extremism.” In early June, Syrian
opposition figures reaffirmed their concern over reports of YPG civilian abuses
against Arab and Turkmen populations in light of the imminent fall of Tel
Abyad. Former Syrian Military Council (SMC) chief of staff Salim Idriss stated his concern regarding Kurdish
abuses against civilians, while Ahrar al-Sham, Jaysh al-Islam, and thirteen
other prominent rebel brigades released a joint statement demanding that the YPG be listed
as a “terrorist organization” due to its “ethnic cleansing” of Arab areas.
Independent media organizations have also reported these allegations, although no
clear evidence has yet been presented. These accusations may threaten to
disrupt the current cooperation between Kurdish forces and the Syrian
opposition amidst preparations for a FSA-led offensive towards ar-Raqqa City.

Implications

The
YPG capture of Tel Abyad marks a major strategic victory for Kurdish forces and
their efforts to form the governance structures of a self-declared Kurdish autonomous
region in northern Syria termed ‘Rojava.’ Kurdish control over Tel Abyad and
its countryside provided a physical link between the Cizire
(Hasakah) and Kobani (Ayn al-Arab) cantons for the first time, bolstering the YPG’s value to the
international anti-ISIS coalition as well as Kurdish claims to self-governance.
However, these gains also escalate tensions with two prominent actors: Turkey
and the Assad regime. The Turkish government has repeatedly condemned the YPG as a “terrorist” group due
to its connections with the outlawed Kurdistan
Workers’ Party (PKK), and Turkish President Recep Erdogan warned on June 14 that the YPG seizure of
Tel Abyad “could lead to the creation of a structure [i.e. Rojava] that
threatens our borders”. These concerns could ultimately drive the Turkish
government to curtail or otherwise limit its participation in the international
anti-ISIS coalition.

Meanwhile,
the Assad regime maintains an uneasy balance with YPG forces in Hasakah
Province, particularly in the cities of Hasakah and Qamishli, and remains
unwilling to allow a Kurdish separation from Syria. Similarly, Syrian Kurds
harbor no sympathy for the Assad regime following years of systemic repression and the removal of the remaining
regime presence in Hasakah Province forms a necessary precondition for the
formation of a truly autonomous Rojava, Although regime and YPG forces continue
to informally cooperate in Hasakah Province, this engrained antipathy has
resulted in numerous minor clashes between regime and YPG forces in
northeastern Syria. In one recent incident, YPG forces refused to provide
support to regime forces during an early June 2015 ISIS offensive against
regime positions south of Hasakah City, prompting the state-owned Al-Watan newspaper to publish a critique
of the “American project” to establish an independent Kurdish entity. One day
after the fall of Tel Abyad, YPG and regime forces engaged in clashes throughout Qamishli
which the YPG blamed on regime “provocations”. These tensions will likely
intensify as the YPG continues to gain ground in northern Syria and the regime
suffers additional losses in western Syria.

The
YPG and its local allies retain an optimal position to threaten ISIS control
over ar-Raqqa City and its surrounding countryside in the aftermath of the
battle for Tel Abyad. Rebel fighters in the Euphrates Volcano Operations Room
have identified ar-Raqqa City as their next
objective and the YPG defense chief for Kobani canton confirmed that “Tel Abyad is only the end of
a phase…we will pursue what remains of ISIS, no matter where.” ISIS appears to
view a joint YPG-rebel advance on ar-Raqqa as a viable threat and reportedly directed residents of the city to stockpile
food supplies in preparation for a potential siege. Any such offensive would
require an attack by YPG and Euphrates Volcano fighters against the ISIS-held
town of Ayn Issa and its associated Brigade 93 base, located south of Tel Abyad
along the highway to ar-Raqqa City. However, the extent to which the YPG
remains willing to advance outside of the Kurdish-majority regions of its
envisioned Rojava remains unclear and Syrian Kurds may alternatively prioritize
efforts against remaining direct threats to their own borders, such as the
enduring ISIS presence in Sarrin southwest of Kobani or the regime remnants in Hasakah
Province. Nevertheless, the ascendance of the YPG and the position it maintains
between Syrian rebels and the regime will continue to form a key factor in
dictating the options available to the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition in Syria.