A missile-armed Iranian frigate and a supply ship passed through the Suez Canal today in what Israeli leaders have described as a “provocation” and an effort by Tehran to exploit recent instability in the Middle East “in order to expand its influence.” The ships, which will travel along the Israeli coast on their way to a training exercise with Syrian forces, are the first Iranian naval vessels to cross the waterway since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. 

This is one warship and a supply vessel. Quite frankly, it won’t change the strategic picture a whole lot. It’s certainly one more thing to keep track of. Iran has meddled in Lebanon in the past, and I can see where it’s a concern. But I just don’t see where [Israel] coming out ahead and publicly trying to make the international community focus on this and putting pressure on Egypt to deny them passage was really effective.

Iran is mostly limited by its capability. It’s very hard to do out-of-area operations. This is analogous to China sending ships to do anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden or Russian warships in Venezuela. It’s a show-the-flag sort of thing. It’s not as though Iranian ships can now operate routinely or comfortably away from their home base.